October 14, 2022 archive. A buyer deciding whether to move ahead then faced two related questions: what might happen to home prices, and what might happen to mortgage rates? The forecasts below record the expectations available in that discussion. They are not current forecasts or a record of what subsequently occurred.
The original article cited the third-quarter 2022 Home Price Expectations Survey. Its retained graphic reports expected December-to-December national appreciation:
| Forecast year | Expected appreciation shown |
|---|---|
| 2022 | 9.75% |
| 2023 | 2.56% |
| 2024 | 2.66% |
| 2025 | 3.66% |
| 2026 | 4.01% |
The original prose separately characterized the 2023 expectation as about 2%. The graphic’s figure is 2.56%; the supplied source material did not explain that difference. The exact chart values are retained without converting an approximation into an identical result.
Pulsenomics describes its expert survey research. A consensus forecast combines opinions about future conditions. It is not a guarantee, and a national forecast cannot predict a particular Telluride or Mountain Village property’s price. Actual outcomes need a separate, dated observed-data series.
The article quoted Realtor.com economist George Ratiu as expecting rates to move above 7% in the following three months. It also cited First American economist Mark Fleming’s view that rates could rise further, while much of the sharp increase might already have occurred. Those were views expressed in the 2022 discussion, not today’s rate quotes or assurances about a future refinancing opportunity.
A rate change affects financing costs alongside the amount borrowed, loan term, fees and mortgage insurance. Compare written lender estimates on the same assumptions. A prediction about lower rates later is not a reason to accept a payment you cannot comfortably carry now.
Consider how long you expect to own the home and what happens if prices fall, rates remain high or your plans change. Include the down payment, closing costs, taxes, insurance, maintenance and any HOA obligations. Compare buying with the practical cost and flexibility of alternatives.
For the property itself, review current comparable sales and active competition in the relevant location, property type and price range. The original discussion’s useful starting point was to consider price and borrowing cost together. Neither forecast provides a universal instruction to buy immediately or to wait.
For comparable sales, competing listings and property-specific questions in Telluride or Mountain Village, contact Anne-Britt Ostlund at Mountain Rose Realty.