October 2023 forecast archive. The chart below records predictions for 2023, as presented when this article was published. They are not realized year-end results, current forecasts or guarantees about Telluride property values.
| Organization or survey label | 2023 forecast shown |
|---|---|
| AEI | 6.0% |
| Zillow | 5.5% |
| Fannie Mae | 3.9% |
| HPES | 3.3% |
| MBA | 1.5% |
| NAR | −0.4% |
| Arithmetic average of all six shown values | 3.3% |
Five displayed forecasts were positive and one was negative. Adding the six published values gives 19.8 percentage points; dividing by six gives the chart’s 3.3% simple average. That calculation assigns each forecast the same weight. It does not turn differently defined measures, publication dates or methodologies into a single official index or a probability of appreciation.
The original article identified HPES as the Home Price Expectations Survey from Pulsenomics, drawing on economists, investment strategists and housing-market analysts. The HPES bar and the chart’s six-forecast average both read 3.3%, but they are different calculations. The graphic does not provide each contributor’s publication date, sample or detailed price definition, so it should not be used as a rigorously like-for-like comparison of forecasting accuracy.
The original discussion connected the more optimistic outlook with limited homes for sale. That was an explanation offered in 2023, not proof that prices could not fall. Forecasts can be revised, and a national forecast cannot settle the outlook for a particular region, property type or home.
The former reassurance that buyers and sellers had no reason to worry about falling values went beyond the evidence. Even a positive national result can coexist with declines in some markets, and a forecast can be wrong. To evaluate what ultimately happened in 2023, compare each forecast with its own matching realized price measure and geographic coverage, using a consistent reporting vintage.
A buyer can use this page to understand what analysts expected at the time. A purchase decision still needs the actual property’s condition, comparable sales, financing costs, ownership expenses and intended holding period. A seller needs current competing listings and recent transactions for the relevant Telluride or Mountain Village segment. None of the six bars is an appraisal, a lender commitment or an expected return on an individual home.
For the survey’s own materials, see Pulsenomics’ home-price expectations research. The original illustration remains above so its labels and assumptions can be inspected alongside this explanation.
For a property-specific review of recent comparable sales, competing listings and your timing, contact Anne-Britt Ostlund at Mountain Rose Realty.