Why You Can’t Compare Now to the ‘Unicorn’ Years of the Housing Market [INFOGRAPHIC]

June 2023 infographic archive. The “unicorn years” label describes the unusual pandemic-era housing environment. Comparing those years with later periods can be useful, provided the metric, geography and time period match. An unusual baseline does not make every comparison unfair or every decline harmless.

Three different comparisons in the original infographic

• Showing activity: the first panel compares a ShowingTime index for April across 2017–2023. An index tracks activity relative to its methodology; it is not a count of purchases or a percentage of homes sold. A decline from a high pandemic-era reading can coexist with activity above earlier years.
• Home-price appreciation: the second panel credits Freddie Mac and compares annual price changes, including double-digit pandemic-era gains. Slower positive appreciation differs from falling prices. A national series cannot establish whether a particular Telluride property gained or lost value.
• Foreclosure filings: the third panel credits ATTOM and compares U.S. properties with filings in 2017–2022. Pandemic-era filing restrictions and assistance changed the context. A subsequent increase from a low base does not by itself establish a crisis, and a lower count than an earlier period does not rule out household distress.

The original infographic is retained at its source resolution. Its small numeric labels and the methods behind its summary claims have not all been independently reconciled here, so they should not be used as a numerical forecast or a local market estimate. The broad caption claiming no flood of foreclosures belongs to this dated illustration; it is not a current assurance.

Compare like with like

Check whether a chart uses one month, a quarter, a full year or a forecast. Keep national indicators separate from local MLS records. Distinguish an asking price from a closed sale, an index change from a percentage change, and a filing from a completed repossession. Review the baseline as well as the headline change.

For a Telluride home search or sale, compare the relevant property type and price band, current competing listings and recent closed sales. Condition, location, association costs and rental restrictions can matter more to a particular decision than a broad pandemic comparison. Neither “normalization” nor “unicorn years” is a valuation method.

For a property-specific discussion, contact Anne-Britt Ostlund at Mountain Rose Realty. Bring your timing, financing assumptions and comparable-property questions.